How to Watch the Brazilian Election Like a Pro
What to expect, what to watch for, and what may happen during the Brazilian election today.
Today is the Brazilian election. For today, I want to give a rundown of what to expect, what to follow, and how to follow the election.
Polls will open at 7 AM local time, and close at 5 PM local time in Brazil. This means at 4 PM Eastern US, or 1 PM Pacific Daylight Time. Afterward, results will start coming out within 2 hours of polls closing across the nation, with early indicators likely being given by the TSE. There is no exit poll this year, as IPEC (formerly Ipobe) is not conducting one.
All 597 seats in the lower chamber are up for grabs (the Chamber of Deputies), and 1/3rd of the Federal Senate. All governorships across the country, and the state assemblies. It is a huge election in every fashion.
PRESIDENTIAL
My election model currently predicts that Lula has a 57% chance to win outright, with a mean vote share of 50.5%. Bolsonaro trails by 14 points.
The leading candidates, Former President Lula (PT), against incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), polls have Lula leading by about 14%, but the main question has been: can Lula be above a runoff?
It is a possibility, but these are what to watch for:
In terms of the percentage of the vote, we need to look at the biggest states, and what Lula needs to hit to have the ability to avoid a runoff. These states encompass 67.5% of the vote share in the first round of the 2018 election: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Ceará, and Pernambuco.
São Paulo: This state is about 22% of the total vote, and will likely heavily direct the outcome. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to be winning São Paulo by over 6.5% and getting about at least 46.7% of the vote. Also, watch the Senate election and the governor election here!
Minas Gerais: The second-largest state, about 11% of the vote, but also a lot of uncertainty when there are 10 million voters. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to be winning by over 18.5% and getting 53.7% or more of the vote.
Rio de Janeiro: This is Bolsonaro’s home turf, and likely also unpredictable, but it encapsulates about 8% of the electorate. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to be winning by over 1.5% over Bolsonaro and getting more than 44.7% of the vote.
Bahia: Bahia is slightly smaller than Rio de Janeiro, however, it will be pivotal for Lula’s margins. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to win over Bolsonaro by a whopping 38.5%, and get more than 69.4% (nice) of the vote.
Rio Grande do Sul: This is going to be one of the closest states this election cycle and is something to look for. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, Lula cannot lose the state by more than 0.4%, and he must get over 42.7% of the state’s vote.
Paraná: If Bolsonaro can stop Lula from getting over 50%, it will be thanks to votes in Paraná, one of the most conservative regions in the south of Brazil. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, Lula must stay within 22.5% of Bolsonaro, and get over 32.6% of the vote.
Ceará: Despite it being Ciro Gomes’ home state, this state is likely to go to Lula by the biggest margin over Bolsonaro, and going to be essential to getting over 50%. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to beat Bolsonaro by over 29%, and get over 64.7% of the vote.
Pernambuco: Out of the biggest regions, this is the “smallest”, but it is also Lula’s home, and likely going to be an area he can count on. For Lula to be meeting the margins he needs to avoid a runoff, he needs to beat Bolsonaro by over 35.1% and get 67.7% of the vote.
Other states to watch for (these are states that are not competitive, and are likely to go for their respective candidate by pretty large margins):
Lula: Alagoas, Sergipe, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, and Piauí.
Bolsonaro: Santa Catarina, Rondônia, Acre, Distrito Federal, and Mato Grasso.
Now, we should be looking at what states will be close between Lula and Bolsonaro. These states will likely be within 5% in terms of margin but could be less close. These states, however, will give a general picture of where the night is going:
States that will be close, regardless: Mato Grasso do Sul, Rio de Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Sul.
States to watch if Lula is having a good night: Goiás and Distrito Federal.
Note: Bolsonaro is likely to win these by over 14%.
States to watch if Bolsonaro is having a good night: Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Tocantins.
Note: Lula is likely to win Amapá, Tocantins, and São Paulo by over 5%. For Amazonas, Pará, and Minas Gerais, likely over 10%.
GOVERNOR ELECTIONS
Now, let’s stop talking about the Presidential race, and go to the governor elections. There are currently seven elections that are extremely likely to end in the first round: Amapá, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grasso, Pará, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Norte. These elections are almost guaranteed to go to the person in the lead and are not competitive.
Amapá, Clecio (Solidariedade) leads with 57%, over Nunes (PSD) who has 38%.
Espírito Santo, Casagrande (PSB) has 59%.
Goiás, Caiado (UB) has 56%.
Mato Grasso, Mendes (UB) has 73%.
Pará, Barbalho (MDB) has 76%.
Paraná, Junior (PSD) has 62%.
Rio Grande do Norte, Fatima (PT) has 61%.
But, let’s go through some categories I’ve created for the more competitive elections, and look over how they might fare out.
In terms of races that may avoid a runoff:
Acre, Cameli (PP) at 51%.
Bahia, ACM Neto (UB) at 47%. Note: Bahia polls for governor are notorious for underestimating the PT candidate. Jerónimo (PT), may win despite polling 37%.
Distrito Federal, Ibaneis (MDB) at 43%.
Maranhão, Brandao (PSB) at 48%.
Minas Gerais, Zema (NOVO) at 50%.
Tocantins, Barbosa (REP) at 45%.
Now, some elections have a likely runoff, but have someone with a clear plurality:
Alagoas, Danta (MDB) at 41%.
Rio Grande do Sul, Leite (PSDB) at 40%. Watch for a potential upset by 2nd place going to Pretto (PT).
Rondônia, Rocha (UB) at 38%.
Roraima, Anchieta (PSDB) at 41%.
São Paulo, Haddad (PT) at 41%. Watch Freitas (REP) and Garcia (PSDB) fight for 2nd place here, this is one of the last PSDB strongholds, Freitas is at 31%, and Garcia is at 22%.
Some elections are extremely likely to have a runoff but have a lot of uncertainty about who will get 2nd place.
If Distrito Federal goes to a runoff, there is some uncertainty about who will place second. Grass (PV) polls at 16%, whereas Izalci (PSDB), Paulo (PSD), and Leila (PDT) poll at 9%, 8%, and 6% respectively.
Maranhão, as previously mentioned, if this goes to a runoff, the uncertainty about who will get 2nd place is high. Bonfim (PSC) leads Rocha (PDT) 23% to 22%.
Mato Grasso do Sul, while Puccinelli (MDB) leads with 31%, candidates Riedel (PSDB) has 18%, Trad (PSD) has 17%, Contar (PRTB) has 17%, and Modesto (UB) has 13%.
Paraíba, while Azevedo (PSB) leads with 38%, Lima (PSDB) and Veneziano (MDB) are tied with 22%, Ferreria (PL) has 15%.
Pernambuco, Arraes (Solidariedade) leads with 38%, but Lyra (PSDB) and Coelho (UB) are tied at 17%, with Cabral (PSB) at 12%.
There are a few other races that are too close to determine who will get first place in the first round, and potentially one (Piauí) that will be settled in the first round.
Amazonas, Amazonino (Cidadania) and Lima (UB) are tied at 30%.
Ceará, Feitas (PT) leads Wagner (UB) by 7%, 44 to 37.
Piauí may end in the first round, but polls are suggesting a nail-biter. Mendes (UB) leads Fonteles (PT) by 2%, 44 to 42.
Rio de Janeiro, this is very likely to go to a runoff, but the first-round result may be close. Castro (PL) leads Freixo (PSB) by 9%, 44 to 35.
Now the final two races that I have yet to discuss, Santa Catarina and Sergipe, are left for last for a clear reason, they are clusterfucks.
Santa Catarina, this is going to be a runoff but is anyone’s game. Moises (REP) and Mello (PL) lead with 20% each. Amin (PP) has 15%, Loureiro (UB) has 14%, and Lima (PT) has 10%. This could have a weird final combination.
Sergipe, a few days ago, the leading candidate Francisquinho (PL) was barred from running, and despite him leading by 18% (he was polling at 38%), he is no longer in the running. The last polls showed Carvalho (PT) at 20%, Fabio (PSD) at 16%, and Alessandro (PSDB) at 6%. This is very uncertain and is something to watch for!
Regardless, we won’t get a clear picture of where the governor races will go until October 30th. But, we can see where many undecided voters go, and see how accurate the polls are.
FEDERAL SENATE AND CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES
Now, I will briefly go over the Federal Senate elections and the elections to the Chamber of Deputies.
The Federal Senate is composed of 81 senators, 3 from each state, and are elected in different blocks. In 2018, 54 seats were up for grabs. However, this time, only 27 seats are up for grabs, first-past-the-post style, so there will be no runoff. The only elections to watch (of note), in my view, are Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná (where polls show that Sergio Moro, the judge who falsely imprisoned Lula, might end up losing the race to the Federal Senate). These races are not as frequently polled (in comparison to Governor and President).
In terms of the Chamber of Deputies, 597 deputies are elected using a system of proportional representation, with a minimum threshold of 8%. Each state has a minimum of 8 deputies, in which there is heavy disproportionality towards smaller states because of this. For example, Roraima has 8 (1 deputy per 53,000), while São Paulo has 70 (1 deputy per 570,000). The election will likely see gains for the bloc aligned with Lula (PT, PCdoB, PV, PSB, Agir, Avante, PROS, PSOL, REDE, and Solidariedade) compared to 2018, but they will be short of a majority. The right-wing parties are also likely to see losses, to the benefit of left-leaning parties, and centrist. It is likely the control of the legislative agenda, and the direction of a potential Lula or Bolsonaro government will be directed by the parties in the center (Cidadania, MDB, and PSD).
END NOTES
Regardless, the election is going to have huge ramifications on the global stage, especially given Brazil’s foreign relations being neutral between the major global powers. Not only this, but Brazil plays an enormous role in the fight against climate change, so this could mark a potentially huge shift in favor of environmentalism across the globe. Be sure to watch the election tomorrow. I will be live-tweeting what I am seeing on Twitter, follow me here.